MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d15e3b8b39f7128c5e9d870b0190c2e3f48eb24ea14612a648233f6ab5d7d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,732 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Washington Nationals | 0c | 3,917$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 2,969$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.3 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 2,002$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.66 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 1,500$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 1,297$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.92 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 1,293$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.65 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 875$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.5 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 814$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.52 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 811.89$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.25 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 796.36$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 647.69$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 601.06$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.42 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 545.03$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 488.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 467.48$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.24 | 158 | 40.5%64 W · 94 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…5ffabacked Washington Nationals | 3c | 372.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 335.54$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 326.22$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.85 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 326$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 26c | 291.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 289$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 255.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 246.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 233.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 225.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Washington Nationals | 8c | 213.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 165.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 163.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 160.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 154$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 114.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Washington Nationals | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 60.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 57.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Washington Nationals | 19c | 57.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 46.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…22babacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295a…5adabacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 38.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 34.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fb…f59abacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 16.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.