Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Zverev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d20fbdb83e67ea03615fe39e3fa36e3fa6248d5b9839a43c55c4e7b36d03f9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Fonseca, Zverev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Fonseca | 0c | 18,754$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fonseca | 37c | 2,535$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.87 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Zverev | 61c | 2,407$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.67 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fonseca | 40c | 1,205$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fonseca | 36c | 746.67$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.63 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Zverev | 61c | 640.97$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.34 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Zverev | 62c | 633.41$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fonseca | 39c | 533.23$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Fonseca | 50c | 385.11$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.05 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Zverev | 63c | 312.46$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.91 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fonseca | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Fonseca | 56c | 198.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Fonseca | 50c | 194.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…949bbacked Zverev | 76c | 193.73$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Fonseca | 39c | 156.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked Fonseca | 46c | 143.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…ee5fbacked Zverev | 60c | 138.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Zverev | 60c | 129.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 34c | 111.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…c2f3backed Zverev | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…a95bbacked Zverev | 61c | 87.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Zverev | 58c | 85.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 313 | 58.5%183 W · 130 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Zverev | 50c | 80.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Zverev | 54c | 72.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 468 | 48.5%227 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Zverev | 60c | 71.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Zverev | 60c | 65.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zverev | 73c | 63.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Zverev | 72c | 61.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Fonseca | 42c | 58.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Fonseca | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…66a2backed Fonseca | 43c | 55.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Zverev | 54c | 52.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Fonseca | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Zverev | 75c | 47.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Fonseca | 41c | 40.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Fonseca | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Zverev | 60c | 39.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Zverev | 58c | 33.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb172…ffa1backed Fonseca | 41c | 24.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked Zverev | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Zverev | 57c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 149 | 58.4%87 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Zverevthis page
- Fonseca vs. Zverev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Zverev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Zverev: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.