Tennis · resolved market
Joao Fonseca vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f91408de4a2bba4f6249d84dad00e2c9ff99ce35176599bf6a531ecb0cb6ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 1,210$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.35 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 931.13$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.06 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 809.8$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.88 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 488$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 461.3$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.14 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 373.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over 2.5 | 16c | 296.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 215.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 200$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 27c | 177.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 159.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Over 2.5 | 15c | 126.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…ee5fbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 124.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 105.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…d4a9backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 99.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over 2.5 | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 86.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under 2.5 | 66c | 84.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Under 2.5 | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under 2.5 | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | -11.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…553ebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 72.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 53.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b20…e938backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 47.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 44.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 43.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 271 | 47.2%128 W · 143 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 43.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Over 2.5 | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 38.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…1e21backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 35.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 31.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…3054backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 27.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over 2.5 | 70c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joao Fonseca vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Fonseca vs. Zverev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Zverev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Zverev: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs ZverevZverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.