Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d50764a7608a6127c290a6498775c356247daba89e83f2fdb24155c8638fd69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 4c | 19,798$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 20c | 597.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 404.65$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 274.51$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 58c | 253.9$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 242.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 41c | 229.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 191.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 178.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 40c | 175.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 28c | 164.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 162.04$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 20c | 148.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 140.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 16c | 140$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 130.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 41c | 126.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 49c | 118.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 114.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 114.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 106.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 59c | 101$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 98.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 93.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 92.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 91.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 90.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 24c | 88.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 40c | 85.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 83.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 59c | 75.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27e…d4fbbacked Yes | 27c | 74.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 67.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 65c | 66.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 38c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 58.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 53.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 53.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 43c | 52.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 44c | 52.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 50.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 51c | 43.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed No | 71c | 43.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 61c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 69c | 36.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 54c | 35.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 44c | 33.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 51c | 33.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 33.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed No | 63c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 63c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 49c | 30.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…7d49backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 24.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 24.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 53c | 22.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 57c | 19.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 19.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 17.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.