Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6804aee3595af4956c42efdfd8bc55af335c90e91eced4b47ca8ad42bc1750ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 16c | 1,147$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 32c | 412.65$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 15c | 357.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 51c | 314$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 76c | 283.26$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.75 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 209.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 191.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 190.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 51c | 179.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 52c | 176.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 168.8$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 24c | 131.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed No | 70c | 125.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 61c | 120.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 52c | 116.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 103.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 92.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 91.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 37c | 84.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 71c | 81.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 29c | 62.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 62.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 61.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 59.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 53c | 57.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 25c | 56.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 38c | 54.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 59c | 53.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…0a22backed Yes | 34c | 51.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 71c | 49.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 41c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 49c | 32.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed Yes | 67c | 30.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…542fbacked No | 61c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 79c | 12.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.