MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d568606041bd3ce6daf645904252d9ee7dbef931a94db12b90dcf78b53f676f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 4,084$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.91 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,274$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 1,083$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 926$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.36 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Texas Rangers | 9c | 301.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 207.12$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…c971backed Texas Rangers | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Texas Rangers | 37c | 190.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Texas Rangers | 17c | 142$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 125.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 121$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 121$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 109.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 78.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 74.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Texas Rangers | 32c | 51.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 48.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 46.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…8d9cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 22.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 13.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.