MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69b5d66d7ffafb9b09e467442b034199197ea73e44279f7aa5ed61d55ec01aa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 63c | 9,998$6,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,287.51 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 24c | 4,931$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.48 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 3,625$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 44c | 2,987$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.07 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 17c | 2,870$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.02 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 2,368$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 55c | 1,806$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Under | 42c | 1,512$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.36 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 1,196$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 1,111$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 1,054$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.67 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 56c | 589.46$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.1 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 42c | 502.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.24 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 474.01$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 471.64$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 453$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 384.31$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.22 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 46c | 257$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 16c | 256.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 63c | 255.44$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 75c | 235.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 44c | 214.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 182$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 57c | 181.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 170.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 154$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 41c | 133.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 132.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 104.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 42c | 102.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 25c | 99.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 34c | 87.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 71c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 17c | 81.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 42c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 59.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 57.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 54.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Under | 57c | 54.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 45c | 50.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 68c | 49.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 25c | 41.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…b001backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 50c | 25.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 50c | 25.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 47c | 23.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Under | 59c | 23.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 23.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Under | 55c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 53c | 19.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 78c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.