Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d6f6a06c8639c02db55cbdf2dd4e5e77739192db61a354b38180af24d5e897a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 1c | 1,152$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 33c | 958.26$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.04 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 798.92$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 36c | 783.75$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.88 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 708.05$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 428.58$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 315$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 60c | 251.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 235.84$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 224.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 28c | 216.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 212.68$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 201.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 182.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 161.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 160.83$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 149.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 143.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 23c | 114$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 108.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 34c | 96.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 70c | 92.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 90.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 35c | 87.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 60c | 77.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 32c | 76.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 72.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 68.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 73c | 66.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 24c | 66.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…a4cabacked Yes | 36c | 56.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 38c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 35c | 49.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 48.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 47.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 46.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 43.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 71c | 42.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked No | 72c | 41.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 41.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 40.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 40.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 40.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 31c | 37.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 38c | 37.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 29.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 27.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 24.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…217fbacked No | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 21.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 67c | 20.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 18.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 66c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 72c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.