Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5bb9390300272aa5682d388ccf0a6a6dd3901363efb682f4547a720c3381809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 79c | 2,022$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.53 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 956.96$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 20c | 577.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 76c | 572.12$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 532.35$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 520.03$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 507.91$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 54c | 492.58$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.32 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 481.22$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 457.85$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 11c | 400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 399.97$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 382.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 42c | 239.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 18c | 216.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 80c | 211.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 206$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 185.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 184.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 178.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 22c | 175.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 171.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 46c | 159.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…c6adbacked No | 12c | 156.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 65c | 154.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 40c | 148$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed No | 11c | 140.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 138.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 69c | 111.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 95.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 59c | 92.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 19c | 87.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 86.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 85.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 76c | 82.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 76.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 33c | 62.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Yes | 49c | 59.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 58.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 77c | 58.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 54.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 51.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 39.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 48c | 32.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 49c | 31.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 61c | 29.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 28.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 26.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 48c | 25.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 48c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 57c | 24.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 24.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 23.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 77c | 22.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 48c | 20.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 64c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 59c | 18.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 60c | 16.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.