Us Politics · resolved market
Epstein Presidential Parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d7daeb63f23b495e2d90c72a837fadf6c72567d34fc0a7ce5cccc65cf827ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 8c | 3,893$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 49c | 737.33$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.59 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 641.85$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.41 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 50c | 327.71$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…236cbacked No | 69c | 292.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…2829backed No | 38c | 270$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 4c | 267.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e4…2420backed No | 60c | 263.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 75c | 242.51$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 62c | 198.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…7aaabacked No | 69c | 145.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 35c | 138.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 134$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 31c | 128.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 103.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed No | 80c | 100.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 97.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 59c | 95.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 70c | 91.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c2…0403backed No | 65c | 88.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 26c | 86.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 39c | 78.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…cd9cbacked No | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 65c | 44.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked No | 60c | 36.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…e03abacked No | 72c | 34.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b08…8401backed No | 60c | 18.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.