MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dab3b7c076507ebaf67257ce0fb24152e8cac3b1bb410f366c55c7939cc7e47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 9,947$4,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,575.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 5,900$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,832 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 4,095$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 631.56$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.51 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 516$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 491.52$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.44 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 476.9$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…a8aabacked San Diego Padres | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 333.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 265.12$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 202.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 198.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 185.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 170$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 118.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 102.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 79.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 66.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bb…c5dbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 56.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 43.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 41.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…2235backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 23.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-7.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-8.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.