MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26aa704c5bf45731a667b071b949f79de68792d8d68111d72bea122de5c1ca32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 6,464$3,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,926.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 25c | 6,196$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 43c | 3,572$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.31 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 70c | 2,953$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,475$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 2,131$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.31 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 1,056$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…fd6cbacked Over | 53c | 792.91$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 41c | 443.89$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.89 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Under | 62c | 404.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 50c | 351.14$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.52 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 63c | 281.48$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 169.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…f0e9backed Over | 64c | 156.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 75c | 150.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 149.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 31c | 126.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 25c | 123$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 118$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 106.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…ede2backed Under | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 99.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 38c | 59.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 40c | 50.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 52c | 49.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 34c | 45.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 40c | 43.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 25c | 40.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Over | 75c | 39.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 75c | 37.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Under | 61c | 32.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Over | 51c | 30.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…db48backed Over | 76c | 26.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bb…c5dbbacked Over | 55c | 24.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 49c | 20.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…2235backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 78c | 15.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-7.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-8.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.