MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34123a02faa4ba8bba8e244a260f39463c9d8861fa5a57b1b7e334aa0ebe7872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 13,514$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 7,820$4,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 3,472$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 2,220$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 1,829$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.39 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 1,592$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.65 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 1,169$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 457$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.77 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 416.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 367.42$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 10c | 331.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 132.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 104.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 102.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 84.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 79.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 78.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 60.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 54.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…b3f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 33.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…c092backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 33.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 26.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-7.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-8.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.