TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,341 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets57c1,226$698 inLost-$697.9911,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Seattle Mariners47c1,115$523 inWon+$591.882,04439.5%808 W · 1,236 L-24.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked New York Mets55c532.71$292 inLost-$29226545.7%121 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Seattle Mariners32c474.44$150 inWon+$324.4429344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners38c318.76$122 inWon+$196.833,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Seattle Mariners44c261.36$115 inWon+$146.3616543%71 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets58c248.41$144 inLost-$143.838,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets63c207.15$131 inLost-$131.0812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked Seattle Mariners30c159.47$48 inWon+$111.637529.3%22 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…e639backed Seattle Mariners41c126.83$52 inWon+$74.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners30c100$30 inWon+$705,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets67c99$66 inLost-$66.332,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Mets59c99$58 inLost-$58.414,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked New York Mets72c62.5$45 inLost-$4513672.1%98 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners44c56.65$25 inWon+$31.545,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets71c45.1$32 inLost-$32.028,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Seattle Mariners53c40.6$22 inWon+$19.0877353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners41c36.19$15 inWon+$21.236,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Seattle Mariners34c30$10 inWon+$19.845650.4%230 W · 226 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Mets71c23$16 inLost-$16.332,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05bc…f3ebbacked New York Mets70c14.53$10 inLost-$10.163046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.