MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac02c9f82ac4797f1e41cc518f1cb1f6f83bb64770932e0cb9f11ffbbc4e30c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 50c | 200,000$99,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,260.57 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 50c | 172,672$86,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,336.17 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 51c | 22,074$11,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,216.29 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 4,444$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.44 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 50c | 2,008$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.75 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 684.65$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 679.23$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 593.51$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 46c | 496.16$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.12 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 52c | 461.54$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 48c | 418.66$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.7 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 318.16$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 294.17$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 286.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Over | 51c | 282.91$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Under | 55c | 266.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 36c | 182$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Under | 50c | 171.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 48c | 122.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 118.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…963fbacked Over | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…b9c9backed Over | 45c | 48.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…a024backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 63c | 35.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 46c | 34.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5da6backed Over | 49c | 32.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 51c | 32.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 51c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…2adbbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 28.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 52c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 25.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 13.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.