MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x078475eff4b3e13a218f005149190977eae8a51a04e67f9bc9429a8dddac8068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 8,000$5,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.52 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked New York Mets | 61c | 7,029$4,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,287.96 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 60c | 4,672$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 4,052$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,471.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked New York Mets | 35c | 2,781$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.41 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 918.87$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.66 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 61c | 821.84$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.32 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 37c | 737.24$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 47c | 592.59$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 60c | 557.74$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.64 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed New York Mets | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed New York Mets | 63c | 499.95$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.97 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed New York Mets | 60c | 359.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 38c | 342.27$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 39c | 314.76$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 290$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 51c | 259.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 254.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.54 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543b…e23dbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 202.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 193.29$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 172.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 61c | 169$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 45c | 127.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…55f8backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 113$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed New York Mets | 63c | 103.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 94.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 87.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 84.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 47c | 63.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 63.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked New York Mets | 35c | 62.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Mets | 51c | 60.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 40.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked New York Mets | 60c | 40.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 38.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked New York Mets | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed New York Mets | 38c | 34.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 26.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e63…6fbbbacked New York Mets | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 22.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed New York Mets | 61c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 13.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.