TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,367,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$502,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,367,270 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa153…0bf0backed Yes0c382,449$1,530 inLost-$1,529.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2c…0320backed Yes0c262,465$1,050 inLost-$1,049.8640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff64…c395backed Yes0c239,785$959 inLost-$959.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1f…2185backed Yes0c232,050$928 inLost-$928.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fab…95cbbacked Yes0c119,984$480 inLost-$479.9430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f2…bdc2backed Yes0c115,288$461 inLost-$461.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a6d…139abacked Yes0c115,288$461 inLost-$461.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c61,062$201 inLost-$201.19994%4 W · 95 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c59,556$130 inLost-$130.361978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fa…6bd0backed Yes1c29,269$293 inLost-$292.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c24,107$81 inLost-$80.772130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a10…4512backed Yes0c24,000$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ac…59abbacked Yes0c24,000$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe743…58a8backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffa…0c3cbacked Yes1c9,415$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d85…8393backed Yes0c7,383$22 inLost-$22.47432.3%1 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-80%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a5…4032backed Yes0c7,056$14 inLost-$14.11442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa3a…ef0ebacked Yes0c6,040$21 inLost-$21.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edd…5ababacked Yes1c5,917$57 inLost-$57250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed8…49d1backed Yes1c5,358$40 inLost-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x169b…64e6backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c2,730$11 inLost-$10.8611337.2%42 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.