TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,337,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,269,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,337,229 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes1c119,253$1,516 inLost-$1,516.28156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-91.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c68,168$110 inLost-$110.191978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c51,000$205 inLost-$205994%4 W · 95 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c14,112$63 inLost-$62.592130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa289…70e0backed Yes0c13,000$13 inLost-$131346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc141…2c71backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost-$128036.3%29 W · 51 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost-$1215219.1%29 W · 123 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfce8…53eabacked Yes0c11,755$12 inLost-$11.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d85…8393backed Yes0c9,397$35 inLost-$34.59432.3%1 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-80%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f43…184dbacked Yes0c6,055$12 inLost-$12.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce3…df3dbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost-$15462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-88.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e6…7201backed Yes1c2,985$29 inLost-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3994…e8adbacked Yes0c2,842$12 inLost-$11.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe30…e0d7backed Yes1c2,701$15 inLost-$15.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x663e…61c8backed Yes0c2,593$13 inLost-$12.83100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10bd…8772backed Yes1c2,049$12 inLost-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c1,801$11 inLost-$11.25397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f04…36ecbacked Yes1c1,342$11 inLost-$11.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf870…e41dbacked Yes1c1,216$10 inLost-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe064…cd51backed Yes1c1,211$10 inLost-$10.2714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes8c499.98$40 inLost-$408219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d1…37c1backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.