TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,009,769
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$423,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,009,769 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7df7…2b2dbacked Yes0c28,000$28 inLost-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933a…24f7backed Yes0c27,000$27 inLost-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d40…beaabacked Yes0c26,000$26 inLost-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b47…9749backed Yes0c26,000$26 inLost-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239e…1146backed Yes0c26,000$26 inLost-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2382…3fe5backed Yes0c24,000$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8078…d9d9backed Yes0c23,000$23 inLost-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b0…69ebbacked Yes0c22,000$22 inLost-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3490…a86fbacked Yes0c22,000$22 inLost-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0c2…58c0backed Yes0c21,000$21 inLost-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c19,954$52 inLost-$51.97994%4 W · 95 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c19,294$54 inLost-$53.591978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4790…c75cbacked Yes0c19,260$19 inLost-$19.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b1a…d0ddbacked Yes0c13,000$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a5…4032backed Yes0c8,588$26 inLost-$25.76442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c5,164$28 inLost-$28.192130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c3,497$39 inLost-$39397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes1c2,271$29 inLost-$28.991,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes2c1,287$28 inLost-$28.476113.1%8 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,237$18 inLost-$17.951,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.