TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$806,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$405,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $806,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c37,952$48 inLost-$48.181550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes0c11,957$42 inLost-$42.37730%0 W · 73 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c7,512$15 inLost-$15.021978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c7,019$19 inLost-$19.12130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b0…4e8cbacked Yes1c6,863$37 inLost-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d5…adb4backed Yes1c6,375$32 inLost-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca8…b081backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…c451backed Yes0c5,960$12 inLost-$11.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes3c2,716$91 inLost-$91.11,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd3…f8c9backed Yes10c1,958$200 inLost-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1bd…c305backed Yes13c878.71$118 inLost-$117.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes6c736.16$47 inLost-$46.876113.1%8 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf805…343abacked Yes10c308.61$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes8c300$24 inLost-$246026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2072…1201backed Yes12c234.1$28 inLost-$28425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2833…9dfbbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost-$191020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed Yes21c50$11 inLost-$10.510954.1%59 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.