Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e4f96abf37de004657fc531c92ea05cd2ef40787d1d993467ecb447a111a7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,538$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 1c | 4,168$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 1c | 3,865$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 11c | 1,351$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.54 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,223$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 10c | 975.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 10c | 949.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Yes | 10c | 948.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…75afbacked Yes | 9c | 946.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 10c | 905.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 14c | 867.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7599…4293backed Yes | 10c | 842.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 10c | 477.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Yes | 11c | 401$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 10c | 394.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 5c | 319.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 10c | 313.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 11c | 296.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…a37ebacked Yes | 10c | 294.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6852backed Yes | 11c | 244.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 11c | 212.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 49c | 204.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…f5e4backed Yes | 10c | 198.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Yes | 8c | 182$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 25c | 174.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…9fd8backed Yes | 10c | 170.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…3e91backed Yes | 26c | 169.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230d…c39bbacked Yes | 16c | 167.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 161.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed Yes | 11c | 156.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 153.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…b306backed Yes | 10c | 138.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…e592backed Yes | 10c | 134.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…688abacked Yes | 10c | 106.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…4017backed Yes | 31c | 99.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01bc…6c9fbacked Yes | 18c | 84.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 40c | 75.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 23c | 67.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 59.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 32c | 49.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 35.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 54c | 20.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.