CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e65ca4bd587c3bd1e3a102fe2993ffdcbd8d34d051cb3dc013f150b509792b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 3DMAXof Natus Vincere, 3DMAX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,235 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 2,181$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.57 | 612 | 28.9%177 W · 435 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 3DMAX | 42c | 2,086$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.21 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.99 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…9eeabacked 3DMAX | 64c | 1,211$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.84 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked 3DMAX | 63c | 1,110$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.7 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 935.93$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.85 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…025abacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 524.64$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…15f2backed 3DMAX | 65c | 504.62$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…e271backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 385.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 379 | 46.4%176 W · 203 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…2eb6backed 3DMAX | 68c | 366.09$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 260$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…b56abacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 223.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed 3DMAX | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 233 | 33%77 W · 156 L | -22.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…c4adbacked 3DMAX | 65c | 195$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed 3DMAX | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed 3DMAX | 61c | 119.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8381…a304backed 3DMAX | 66c | 116.92$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 122 | 73.8%90 W · 32 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3383…b7debacked 3DMAX | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…fff4backed 3DMAX | 69c | 85.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 3DMAX | 48c | 84.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 78.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed 3DMAX | 41c | 68.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…2ac1backed 3DMAX | 69c | 56.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 47.5%237 W · 262 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b53…5961backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked 3DMAX | 50c | 53.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed 3DMAX | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x436c…5fbdbacked 3DMAX | 42c | 36.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 20.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…c1cdbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed 3DMAX | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed 3DMAX | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Natus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner3DMAX won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.