TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
3DMAXof 3DMAX, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,721 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3a1…3529backed Natus Vincere64c31,642$20,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,329.324548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 3DMAX35c25,000$8,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,249.9972453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 3DMAX36c13,831$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,870.776657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked Natus Vincere65c11,300$7,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,337.8722550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX59c11,059$6,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,526.532,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere44c6,084$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Natus Vincere50c5,552$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.0711241.1%46 W · 66 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed 3DMAX54c4,881$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.412446.8%58 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere62c4,119$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.6846349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere28c4,019$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.111,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed 3DMAX50c3,952$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.8611550.4%58 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Natus Vincere69c3,344$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30013347.4%63 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x679d…6f07backed Natus Vincere2c3,200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.822528%7 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere26c3,170$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.481,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed 3DMAX40c3,091$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.9821941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked 3DMAX34c2,880$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.0122927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Natus Vincere62c2,517$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.817042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Natus Vincere51c2,369$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20038552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Natus Vincere43c2,318$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00056938.1%217 W · 352 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 3DMAX59c2,148$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.077,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked 3DMAX57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86013756.2%77 W · 60 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Natus Vincere65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3009343%40 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa5…46d6backed Natus Vincere65c1,936$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.343847.4%18 W · 20 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Natus Vincere46c1,790$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.1892152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed 3DMAX35c1,686$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.387152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Natus Vincere45c1,606$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.0647738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Natus Vincere51c1,590$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.5780744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked 3DMAX36c1,492$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.19552.6%50 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed 3DMAX42c1,437$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.8441850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Natus Vincere48c1,330$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.6775545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Natus Vincere35c1,302$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.111,65932.7%542 W · 1,117 L-49.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Natus Vincere44c1,255$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.621146%97 W · 114 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere55c1,236$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.341,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Natus Vincere67c1,181$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.1545162.3%281 W · 170 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Natus Vincere54c1,173$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.8728443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked 3DMAX34c1,160$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.1352834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 3DMAX33c1,136$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.092,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04da…3a9fbacked Natus Vincere5c1,100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.211159.5%66 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed 3DMAX37c1,081$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.0814532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cbe…ad59backed Natus Vincere2c1,029$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed 3DMAX39c1,026$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.4125640.2%103 W · 153 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked 3DMAX33c1,000$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67561228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Natus Vincere64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed 3DMAX47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53026743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere66c999.98$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9945859%270 W · 188 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Natus Vincere50c999.96$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018250%91 W · 91 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere63c995.24$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62746749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 3DMAX47c949.71$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.343,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Natus Vincere51c937.45$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48052947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Natus Vincere42c923$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.121455.6%119 W · 95 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere33c917.07$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.439248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Natus Vincere48c912.77$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.4713043.1%56 W · 74 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere37c885.5$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.6489546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc6…4b3bbacked Natus Vincere22c874.07$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Natus Vincere62c811.76$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.298050%40 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f8…1655backed Natus Vincere43c800$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3413151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Natus Vincere66c764.59$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.2811354%61 W · 52 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Natus Vincere67c746.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Natus Vincere67c746.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50032653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6867…f8d2backed Natus Vincere67c746.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 3DMAX45c707.46$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.294,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked 3DMAX36c699.9$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.2435850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0af…3b75backed Natus Vincere48c667.14$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.918342.1%77 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed 3DMAX37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37831444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed 3DMAX54c581.37$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.671,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b97…4d93backed Natus Vincere65c580$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3778151.9%42 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed 3DMAX35c571.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.426958.4%157 W · 112 L+20.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere57c554.35$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.062,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf13…ed3dbacked 3DMAX46c550.47$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.058633.7%29 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Natus Vincere61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30545455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed 3DMAX48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26055232.4%179 W · 373 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 3DMAX35c499.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.991,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed 3DMAX38c487.48$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.8896743.5%421 W · 546 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed 3DMAX37c472.97$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.9727459.5%163 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Natus Vincere64c466.72$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.734146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d4…4eb5backed Natus Vincere33c465.12$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef66…f839backed Natus Vincere43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013036.9%48 W · 82 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Natus Vincere57c465$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0519741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed 3DMAX50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Natus Vincere50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Natus Vincere51c392.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Natus Vincere65c385.08$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f18…7818backed Natus Vincere43c367.93$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb311…a72dbacked 3DMAX44c341.51$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.519744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Natus Vincere64c320$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.815142.4%64 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e32…5a75backed Natus Vincere63c309.66$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed 3DMAX74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7860848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked 3DMAX74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7878963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere45c297.23$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.715,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3383…b7debacked Natus Vincere14c277.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d5…853dbacked 3DMAX37c275.67$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.875255.8%29 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…7287backed Natus Vincere55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010541%43 W · 62 L-10.4wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked 3DMAX37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2714843.9%65 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed 3DMAX37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2750846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe239…1761backed Natus Vincere36c269.91$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988748.3%42 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked 3DMAX52c261.41$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8729547.8%141 W · 154 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Natus Vincere42c243.83$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.350340.2%202 W · 301 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x674f…2c09backed Natus Vincere43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked 3DMAX34c228.6$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8818043.3%78 W · 102 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Natus Vincere44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012256.6%69 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.