MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e88acdeeb86c0ea4d36fe1daa5b42cd47c6314692ae72f4fb3f70eacb4050f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 40c | 8,000$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231.24 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 5,294$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 39c | 2,809$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 2,094$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.54 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 1,128$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,022$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 999.1$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 60c | 731.67$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.58 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 600$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 65c | 421.62$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.08 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 55c | 345.45$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 345.45$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 72c | 213.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 69c | 200.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 140.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 59c | 135.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 132.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 93.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 50c | 77.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 75.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 73c | 72.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…0e53backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 59c | 55.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 61c | 49.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 59c | 47.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 61c | 32.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 37c | 31.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.