MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7213a7a08a90a30f269b13628a0121cedd9356e9b5ebe4709411d4bac8bce58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 6,299$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 4,634$3,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 2,326$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 1,035$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.57 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 725.6$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.17 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 379$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 348.29$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 279.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 238.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 145.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 143$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 19c | 134.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Washington Nationals | 80c | 99.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 75.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Washington Nationals | 76c | 75.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f7…a9a9backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 65.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 38.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.