TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,666
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,666 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb85…152fbacked Under51c29,604$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00016548.5%80 W · 85 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Over50c22,609$11,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,410.4811849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over49c9,047$4,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,613.934,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under50c7,089$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.6139047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1201,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under50c3,540$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7844,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over50c2,409$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.8811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over49c1,881$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.016,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under50c1,755$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.533,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Under52c1,660$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.7621052.9%111 W · 99 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over50c1,573$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.592054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under52c1,404$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.4328154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under50c1,375$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.751,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under50c1,299$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.398,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under50c1,102$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.189,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under52c982.44$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.784,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3989153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over48c934$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.922,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c850$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.675,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Over50c844$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42225249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over48c795.72$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.7847953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over52c784.41$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.297349.3%36 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xace2…8fe6backed Under56c653.63$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under49c613.56$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.563,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Under50c601.45$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7321550.2%108 W · 107 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under51c290.12$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.961,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.55,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c233.44$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Over51c215.69$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6981257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over49c209.27$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1489053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0894034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over49c204$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.041,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over50c203$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.111,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dec…c92dbacked Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010459.6%62 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.082751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f3…1f2abacked Under51c194.11$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over38c185.65$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.478,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Over51c172.55$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5515147%71 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Over50c159.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9643560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c8e…22c3backed Under33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402466.7%16 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+58.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over39c120.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.346,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over67c118.59$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.148,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Over50c116.04$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0239151.9%203 W · 188 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.52,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4999447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4961250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe997…f92ebacked Under52c94.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.059153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over48c82.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.922,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Under68c82.14$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9279255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under71c71.53$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.777050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f36…905fbacked Over48c68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3619152.9%101 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over41c65.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.225,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under50c62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over49c61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.112,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over49c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.341,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f2…a6fabacked Over45c58.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1410253.9%55 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b9d…77debacked Over51c57.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.074250%21 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2585949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf9…3a59backed Under52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516544.8%74 W · 91 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over49c47.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.921,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under60c42.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3255…ffb9backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018053.9%97 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Under51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019252.6%101 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bad…ed33backed Over47c38.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.52540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Under51c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8525850.4%130 W · 128 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under56c34.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1490446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Under49c31.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3983053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f02…823dbacked Over51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.415554.5%30 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under58c29.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.081,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Over51c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2134149.3%168 W · 173 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Over50c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131,29950.9%661 W · 638 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over49c25.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.194,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under42c24.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.281,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x741a…b692backed Over51c23.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3317647.7%84 W · 92 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98cb…26bcbacked Over61c22.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Over50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1176752.3%401 W · 366 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under50c21.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8978155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under50c20.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over50c20.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.161,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Under50c20.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1355643.9%244 W · 312 L-38.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Under54c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2635248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under69c17.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.761,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Under68c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8870546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.