MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9faa9d17c113334e60bea02693ed473f8c7cf6a5a65185ab6dea60fe6f2d26f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 52c | 12,920$6,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,144 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 5,839$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 5,561$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 53c | 1,781$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.11 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 1,617$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 1,390$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 628.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 51c | 596$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.96 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 592$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…40b1backed Over | 60c | 540.37$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 42c | 512.22$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 411.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 42c | 307.12$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 59c | 169.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 46c | 161.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 41c | 156.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 48c | 133$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 63c | 109.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6b…9b5abacked Over | 48c | 102.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 94.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 53c | 60.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 55c | 54.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 75c | 54.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Over | 52c | 52.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 57c | 52.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 49c | 49.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 41.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Over | 49c | 41.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd6…107bbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…9a96backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 47c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 23.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Under | 67c | 15.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.