MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8f3fb302f613054c9de674876b9d4472bb9f71b19758d2832239515947cd0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 4,925$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.28 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 1,203$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.85 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 1,035$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.48 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 626.06$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.56 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 437$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.31 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 273$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 219.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 203.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 198$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 172.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 166$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 154.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 141.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 109.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 108.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 96.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 95.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 88.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 85.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 53.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Washington Nationals | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 44.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 31.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 28.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 24.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.