MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc30db66753f09902488ded389f1da20eebc0a65e831df97f3b3cf0c062659ffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Under | 63c | 3,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.89 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 1,990$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 957.84$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 23c | 498.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 279$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 37c | 279$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 23c | 187.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c8…a24abacked Under | 68c | 146.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…7da8backed Over | 31c | 124$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 122$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 68c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 35c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 40.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 35.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 77c | 29.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 28.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Under | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 77c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 79c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.