Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef319b29248a4ff17bc8a9a0434e3c094dd213120a88f27a96356c8bd71a688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 4,843$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847.7 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 1,438$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.29 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 595.2$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.72 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…28f2backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 60c | 441.16$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.7 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 58c | 258.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 58c | 207.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 185.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 42c | 156$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 60c | 153$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 40c | 133$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 42c | 111.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 54c | 85.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 28c | 76.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…fa68backed No | 20c | 72.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 172 | 23.3%40 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 40c | 71.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…c616backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…e751backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed No | 60c | 45.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc7…6895backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 84 | 73.8%62 W · 22 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 59c | 39.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…e2e6backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 60c | 24.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…fd63backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico to win the second half?this page
- Korea Republic to win the second half?No won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.