TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,782

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,782 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3bd8…c2f3backed Over54c4,356$2,352 inLost-$2,352.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5543…e194backed Under46c2,462$1,133 inWon+$1,329.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2794…433dbacked Under46c2,452$1,128 inWon+$1,324.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0f…97c4backed Under46c2,366$1,088 inWon+$1,277.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x919c…7f8cbacked Under46c2,266$1,042 inWon+$1,223.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612a…44c9backed Over54c2,233$1,206 inLost-$1,205.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcba8…cf76backed Over54c2,212$1,194 inLost-$1,194.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4abf…644cbacked Over54c2,211$1,194 inLost-$1,193.9420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x905a…5719backed Over54c2,202$1,189 inLost-$1,189.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…47cbbacked Under46c2,175$1,001 inWon+$1,174.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2db…7805backed Under46c2,155$991 inWon+$1,163.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9d…5bc8backed Over54c2,155$1,164 inLost-$1,163.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc2…67dabacked Over54c2,151$1,162 inLost-$1,161.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ec…b2c9backed Under46c2,102$967 inWon+$1,135.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f6…ed02backed Under46c2,101$966 inWon+$1,134.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a3…4cfebacked Over54c2,075$1,121 inLost-$1,120.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f54…e9ecbacked Under46c2,062$949 inWon+$1,113.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc607…ba0bbacked Over54c2,022$1,092 inLost-$1,091.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb00…c3e0backed Over54c2,001$1,081 inLost-$1,080.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d86…ff0bbacked Over54c2,001$1,081 inLost-$1,080.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff38…67d6backed Over54c1,902$1,027 inLost-$1,027.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4833…98b4backed Under46c1,881$865 inWon+$1,015.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6030…a90ebacked Under46c1,822$838 inWon+$983.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x217a…1257backed Under46c1,776$817 inWon+$959.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64ae…f02bbacked Under46c1,755$807 inWon+$947.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x300f…d75dbacked Under46c1,725$794 inWon+$931.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c2…3bc4backed Over54c1,721$929 inLost-$929.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfedc…d668backed Over54c1,599$863 inLost-$863.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ecb…9ba3backed Over54c1,575$851 inLost-$850.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6cc…5fa9backed Under46c1,564$719 inWon+$844.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d2…758bbacked Under46c1,551$713 inWon+$837.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e7d…e0bfbacked Under46c1,523$701 inWon+$822.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c9…dd6abacked Under46c1,474$678 inWon+$795.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x400f…a1e5backed Over54c1,388$750 inLost-$749.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa087…061ebacked Over54c1,322$714 inLost-$713.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over55c1,076$589 inLost-$588.829,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c1,031$505 inLost-$504.994,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Under51c979.59$499 inWon+$480.5421247.2%100 W · 112 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under45c940.29$424 inWon+$516.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under54c700$378 inWon+$32265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over49c363.61$177 inLost-$176.558,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Over10c241$24 inLost-$24.127937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under36c110.23$40 inWon+$70.41,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over41c106.82$43 inLost-$43.471,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over49c99.9$49 inLost-$49.145,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514e…a604backed Under43c99$43 inWon+$56.439551.6%49 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce84…94f2backed Over54c86$46 inLost-$46.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under58c76.5$44 inWon+$32.062,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under48c66.4$32 inWon+$34.5344747%210 W · 237 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc816…7a20backed Over55c45.7$25 inLost-$259552.6%50 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab7…b03ebacked Over55c44.98$25 inLost-$24.74825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x09fd…60f7backed Under62c40.32$25 inWon+$15.32825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over55c40$22 inLost-$2296956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under47c34$16 inWon+$18.0232752.9%173 W · 154 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ea…8300backed Over54c27.78$15 inLost-$158554.1%46 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+29.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over69c18.71$13 inLost-$12.913,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.