NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddf8bdeb3124ce024ab08d4f2047d87f5cf9e32cf61280672df0e301ba48975b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,568 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f45…a321backed Over | 52c | 35,081$18,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,077.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 15,986$7,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,324.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 48c | 14,000$6,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,280 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 52c | 10,015$5,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,207.2 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 9,334$4,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,545.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 8,910$4,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,365.83 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 5,273$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.04 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 49c | 5,056$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.44 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Under | 49c | 3,762$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.62 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 3,621$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.08 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bee…a369backed Under | 49c | 3,528$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.28 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.33 | 389 | 46%179 W · 210 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under | 49c | 2,645$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.57 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under | 49c | 2,549$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.94 | 175 | 50.9%89 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…7d01backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 51c | 1,979$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 1,682$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.36 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Under | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…84b4backed Over | 49c | 1,266$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…7976backed Over | 49c | 1,262$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.47 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Over | 49c | 1,253$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614 | 187 | 49.2%92 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…4767backed Under | 49c | 1,134$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.34 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…8acebacked Under | 49c | 1,118$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.37 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 48c | 1,020$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.4 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…bb26backed Under | 48c | 975.02$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Over | 52c | 961.53$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Under | 48c | 850$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 718.99$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.12 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 674.71$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.25 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 52c | 580$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -13.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…915dbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 49c | 329$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 52c | 265$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Under | 49c | 192$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 24c | 172.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 49c | 119.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 110.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed Under | 51c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…6f17backed Under | 72c | 69.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 56.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 50c | 51.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 47c | 47.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…7d8dbacked Under | 51c | 41.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 40.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…86d1backed Over | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Over | 49c | 27.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Cavaliers vs. PelicansCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.