TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Cavaliers, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$339,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,639 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Pelicans52c48,983$25,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,692.2960351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers49c31,901$15,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,620.529,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Cavaliers49c30,125$14,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,738.981,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans50c21,296$10,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,607.451,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Cavaliers48c19,200$9,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,215.8929245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans49c14,604$7,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,509.664,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans52c12,757$6,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,105.564,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Cavaliers48c11,760$5,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,644.828649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Pelicans52c11,044$5,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,301.127653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Cavaliers48c10,300$4,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,943.9428554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pelicans52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Pelicans52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Cavaliers48c9,800$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7047240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers42c8,760$3,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.18,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Cavaliers48c6,874$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3007451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Cavaliers49c6,228$3,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,051.71,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Cavaliers47c6,120$2,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,898.7317050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Pelicans51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,94074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Pelicans51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cavaliers46c5,848$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.72,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Cavaliers48c5,491$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.588148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Cavaliers48c5,417$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed Cavaliers48c5,281$2,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.735547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a64…6395backed Cavaliers48c4,648$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,23130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Pelicans47c4,629$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.725352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Cavaliers48c4,583$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fb…8ea0backed Cavaliers49c3,783$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans51c3,543$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.24,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers50c3,248$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.744,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddb…88fbbacked Pelicans54c3,022$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Cavaliers51c2,955$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.351,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d4…6766backed Cavaliers46c2,566$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.3620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed43…0448backed Pelicans54c2,521$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Pelicans52c2,499$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.9671654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers47c2,448$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.371,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Pelicans52c2,419$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.3127455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88a8…b406backed Cavaliers46c2,363$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x930f…1ebebacked Pelicans54c2,202$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f63…5c8dbacked Cavaliers46c2,155$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a4…1220backed Pelicans54c2,155$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers47c2,144$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.662,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4283…fc5cbacked Pelicans54c2,120$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe0…dc42backed Cavaliers46c2,105$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed87…c315backed Cavaliers46c2,075$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ec…8c70backed Cavaliers46c2,066$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.3620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd46f…883bbacked Cavaliers46c2,054$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Cavaliers49c2,052$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0c…04b6backed Cavaliers49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1848…bd58backed Cavaliers46c1,984$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers54c1,945$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.22,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Pelicans52c1,935$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.561,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Pelicans52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0764944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…9be0backed Cavaliers46c1,922$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd91c…08bbbacked Pelicans54c1,912$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7c…b86dbacked Pelicans54c1,900$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc2…ba49backed Pelicans54c1,856$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3486…6239backed Pelicans54c1,822$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers48c1,743$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.916,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa63d…9b4bbacked Cavaliers46c1,740$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…041ebacked Pelicans54c1,720$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6716…e673backed Cavaliers46c1,566$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.3620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…2427backed Cavaliers46c1,536$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb55a…5df4backed Pelicans54c1,502$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.924100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b1a…b8fcbacked Pelicans54c1,400$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans52c1,385$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.023,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pelicans51c1,349$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.781,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed Pelicans52c1,313$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.587948.1%38 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Pelicans52c1,246$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.1640451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers48c1,071$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.42,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Pelicans49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.1918651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers47c1,016$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.973,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Pelicans52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Cavaliers48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Pelicans52c961.52$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5324050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Pelicans55c843.29$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.2914455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Pelicans54c815.07$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.0719359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Pelicans52c807.69$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.6967252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd790…a24ebacked Pelicans48c794.75$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.276963.8%44 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cavaliers47c784.38$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.55,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Pelicans46c733.92$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.222,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4a…e7cabacked Cavaliers48c697.94$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.223432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Pelicans51c696.68$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.0322154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Cavaliers64c661.05$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.4811142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x108c…122dbacked Pelicans52c659$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.326134.4%21 W · 40 L-10.1wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-32.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pelicans50c647.88$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.53,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Pelicans52c624$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.2945151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…aa15backed Cavaliers48c597$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.563938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fbc…8a18backed Cavaliers48c596.99$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.564445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Pelicans52c591$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.6871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Pelicans52c590.08$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.2417041.8%71 W · 99 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Cavaliers48c581.73$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2809845.9%45 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked Pelicans52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.926266.1%41 W · 21 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Cavaliers50c575$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.534851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers54c532.18$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.472,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Pelicans52c521.13$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.147542.7%32 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Pelicans52c509.27$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4521546.5%100 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Pelicans48c509.17$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.7757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Pelicans52c508.23$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.959855.1%54 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.