NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41bccd09e09aab021d7aaf58c2af8fd02c70fe23b862c55e2a9830b4f6f2e97e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,348 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 55c | 25,000$13,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,649.01 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 16,637$7,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,151.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 4,200$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 2,649$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.11 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e9…a60cbacked Under | 46c | 2,374$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.91 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 1,596$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.21 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 1,568$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.73 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…2484backed Under | 46c | 982.67$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.64 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Under | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.57 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 773.09$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.79 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 332.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 237.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Over | 52c | 203.05$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 49c | 196.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 194.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 45.7%134 W · 159 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 45c | 176.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 140.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 56c | 138.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 128.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 104.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 53c | 72.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 52c | 63.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 48c | 63.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 47c | 39.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 53c | 33.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…3fb1backed Under | 50c | 27.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 45c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…4b61backed Over | 54c | 20.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Cavaliers vs. PelicansCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.