TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,057 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa01b…2d4cbacked Over50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc1…f13fbacked Under50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over52c6,442$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3551,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Over54c5,066$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.7377348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7434…301bbacked Under50c4,655$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,327.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under51c4,564$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,236.331,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17c4…b7adbacked Under50c4,299$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x808e…4aebbacked Under50c4,242$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c4,230$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.254,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe735…39a2backed Under50c4,219$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d9…7b51backed Under50c4,219$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba72…2348backed Under50c4,212$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f73…602abacked Under50c4,211$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c1…a2fdbacked Under51c4,001$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa151…7f4fbacked Under50c3,866$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa84…dff1backed Under51c3,811$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba9…0fb3backed Under50c3,663$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…cf5dbacked Under50c3,613$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f8…550cbacked Under50c3,418$1,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2cb…ec0fbacked Under50c3,214$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6072100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over32c3,197$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.072,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d94…fc71backed Under50c3,020$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9957950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f7b…c08cbacked Under50c2,964$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc183…659abacked Under51c2,802$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd212…c53abacked Under50c2,761$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f0e…66d1backed Under50c2,466$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2332100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7f…91e1backed Over50c2,411$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c81…be56backed Over50c2,244$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b95…09fabacked Over50c2,244$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6e…be34backed Over50c2,239$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceef…eacdbacked Over49c2,233$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc113…d4febacked Over49c2,219$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.3120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0b…7049backed Over50c2,214$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6192…35e8backed Over50c2,211$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c2,202$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.584,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x864a…c1aebacked Over49c2,202$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e52…5a65backed Over50c2,194$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fb…760fbacked Under51c2,119$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd071…12a3backed Over50c2,088$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa994…3b75backed Over50c2,088$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f04…b97dbacked Over49c2,066$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x119b…5f4bbacked Under50c2,045$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda78…f1acbacked Over49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21bc…eb8fbacked Over50c2,024$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d6…5f0abacked Over50c2,011$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bee…8a5abacked Over50c2,006$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x669f…fb2fbacked Over50c2,002$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2e2…25d9backed Over50c2,002$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0008953.9%48 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc44c…0d32backed Under50c1,946$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa640…dc2dbacked Under50c1,939$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75af…145fbacked Over55c1,938$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf09a…5674backed Over50c1,919$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under45c1,900$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0451,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2a…b277backed Over49c1,899$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6036…2c32backed Over50c1,888$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x969e…fdb1backed Over50c1,844$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c26…1853backed Over50c1,832$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca8…d44ebacked Over50c1,826$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…1c92backed Over50c1,818$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe635…fa44backed Over50c1,818$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5248…187cbacked Over50c1,811$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882d…ffa3backed Over50c1,802$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73b9…510abacked Over50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb48…b459backed Over50c1,756$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over40c1,725$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.032,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94ca…b524backed Over50c1,722$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0551…aa04backed Over50c1,717$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd1…0591backed Over50c1,699$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over51c1,680$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.870246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f8…ac89backed Over50c1,625$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddc…8208backed Over50c1,535$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5693…3c2abacked Over50c1,533$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a74…8443backed Over50c1,455$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x194f…8ec0backed Over49c1,441$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1df…e65abacked Under50c1,428$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0d1…2ae4backed Over50c1,417$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24a8…a1a7backed Under51c1,363$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc54…bcd0backed Over50c1,262$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c1,152$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.833,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a19…1824backed Over50c1,113$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5122…4965backed Under50c1,098$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d9…d302backed Over50c1,006$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba1…1a43backed Over50c908$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Under51c900.07$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.0714455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Under50c882$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44119359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under47c850$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.561740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Over49c846.96$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.0131643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over54c792.71$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.432,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over54c682$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.284,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over33c679.48$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.842,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d7…0df5backed Under45c657.78$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.784434.1%15 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6da…ba56backed Over50c638$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7694…a036backed Under50c556$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x805f…7bf4backed Over50c512$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ba…227dbacked Over50c502$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60be…f6b9backed Under50c458$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c455.48$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.789,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.