Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f8b1bea4bc996f17902c17fab9dab0f7d53988a7c85e4e704e124e3d9a90cad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 39c | 1,045$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.03 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 392.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 341.87$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 317.06$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 61c | 233.57$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…b30ebacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 146.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 38c | 130.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 109.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…3359backed Yes | 16c | 105.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 95.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 92.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 32c | 71.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 68.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 61.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 55.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 53.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 53.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 74c | 52.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 52.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 51.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 50.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 49.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 76c | 49.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 25c | 48.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 25c | 47.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 46.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 31c | 43.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 39.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 77c | 37.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 67c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 69c | 23.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 22.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 17.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 74c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 68c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.