MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa3ffa61a6c478531f67098313180fff8641975eb4f0be18cde019817b26e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 49c | 14,858$7,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,261.92 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 9,976$5,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,938.13 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 3,149$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.97 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 3,129$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.05 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 50c | 1,457$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.56 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 1,404$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.35 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 1,165$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.84 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 1,115$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.59 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.15 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 729$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.34 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 500.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 395$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 350.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 341$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 50c | 298.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 65c | 284$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…be31backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 137.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…a357backed Under | 46c | 132.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Under | 46c | 100.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 69c | 78.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 73c | 70.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed Over | 50c | 56.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 53.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 30c | 38.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 47c | 35.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 73c | 33.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 32.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 49c | 25.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 14.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.