Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa5d6e2de40fae188040918c523d6c4d15d4ccda9b03ff2df3f48a62f7d476c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 6c | 5,638$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.57 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 22c | 4,429$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.99 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 5c | 3,814$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 32c | 3,534$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.75 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 68c | 2,233$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.46 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 6c | 1,904$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 29c | 1,651$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.7 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 29c | 1,321$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 71c | 887.04$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.24 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 5c | 807.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 75c | 732.08$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 76c | 547.01$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 29c | 523.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.88 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 31c | 383.44$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 68c | 373.55$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 14c | 365.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 29c | 365.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 71c | 300.92$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 76c | 271.8$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 75c | 250.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 75c | 250.5$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 76c | 248.24$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 76c | 248.24$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 77c | 226.56$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 76c | 224.68$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 32c | 179.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Over | 24c | 156.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Under | 75c | 93.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 73c | 81.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 29c | 75.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Over | 25c | 75.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 72c | 67.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…f247backed Over | 19c | 57.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 73c | 57.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 54.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 70c | 45.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 70c | 45.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 75c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Under | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Under | 77c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 70c | 21.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 70c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 76c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.