Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bfea3caf58ff346d159e010125a56e3919b5618ec87808aa75af40d3ab4593d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 6,766$3,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…5104backed Yes | 49c | 1,978$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,881$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.87 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 28c | 1,662$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.49 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 957.89$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.37 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 57c | 719.31$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…ec4cbacked No | 69c | 619.12$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…6da3backed Yes | 61c | 617.12$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Yes | 56c | 547.65$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.68 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 55c | 530.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Yes | 57c | 515.83$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 43c | 465.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.53 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Yes | 56c | 417.26$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.66 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Yes | 60c | 407.92$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 40c | 399.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…6510backed Yes | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 37c | 393.85$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bb…e40fbacked No | 40c | 379.32$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes | 37c | 244.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc30…ad13backed No | 74c | 239.38$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 44c | 184.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…7b0ebacked Yes | 56c | 178.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 52c | 151.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 49c | 140.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…65dcbacked Yes | 56c | 123.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 42c | 122.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdd…a037backed Yes | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked No | 59c | 81.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 49c | 80.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed No | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 53c | 69.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…dd56backed Yes | 53c | 69.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed No | 46c | 67.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…7843backed Yes | 57c | 65.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 56c | 64.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Yes | 49c | 59.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed No | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…8beabacked Yes | 54c | 53.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 43c | 53.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 59c | 51.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Yes | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 54c | 51.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 47c | 44.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed No | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…7f2cbacked Yes | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed No | 46c | 39.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…0ef8backed Yes | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Yes | 33c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…6810backed No | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Yes | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Yes | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked No | 43c | 25.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f1…2c1cbacked Yes | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Yes | 56c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…88b0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Yes | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 55c | 18.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked Yes | 60c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.