MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2faf3a3a3490a5d4c1fbe4357d414f81bb90b2b8928779f4f0fbbe408b9f667c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 9,827$5,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,631.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 8,038$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over | 60c | 8,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Under | 47c | 7,061$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,318.83 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 1,350$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.19 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 1,304$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 47c | 1,122$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.34 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 50c | 1,062$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.77 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 1,000$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.36 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 49c | 768.8$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.71 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 50c | 624.61$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.26 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Under | 28c | 619.31$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.38 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 570.78$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…799cbacked Over | 55c | 547.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 52c | 546.29$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.22 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 53c | 534.38$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.16 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Over | 52c | 516.38$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.86 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 390$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 377.19$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed Under | 49c | 349.65$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 327.69$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 6c | 263.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 6c | 237.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 196.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 46c | 135.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 50c | 123$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 49c | 98.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Over | 52c | 95.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 94.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 50c | 71.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 46c | 67.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 54c | 33.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 54c | 30.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 50c | 30.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…4e60backed Under | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Over | 50c | 23.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 51c | 21.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 71c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.