MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc262f5850c0a199dc0a1cd680d7f47237b750b16fa9a6f259def7b4efc04bed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Athletics, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Athletics | 34c | 15,260$5,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,188.49 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 13,166$8,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,476.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 1,506$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Athletics | 33c | 1,024$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.89 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 813.5$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.05 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 700$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 588.65$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 475.17$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.71 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 406$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Athletics | 33c | 326$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Athletics | 31c | 318.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 35c | 273.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Athletics | 36c | 180$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Athletics | 33c | 148.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 131.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 33c | 118.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Athletics | 32c | 116.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 110.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 33c | 101.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Athletics | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 35c | 99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Athletics | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Athletics | 27c | 78.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…806fbacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 75.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Athletics | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 47.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 40.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 15.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.