NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc1fa2bf4e4d4f0d35af392e70916855fdc80b3e329b1f588aadfba23f376c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Bucks | 13c | 776.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.26 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Bucks | 26c | 98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…0083backed Bucks | 24c | 87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…58e2backed Magic | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…48a0backed Magic | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe1…14e5backed Magic | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Magic | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Magic | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Magic | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf00…9222backed Magic | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…7941backed Magic | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…104bbacked Magic | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Magic | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…eba9backed Magic | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…82d0backed Magic | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…2f4ebacked Magic | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Magic | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…6e74backed Magic | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Magic | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-6.5)Bucks won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Bucks vs. MagicBucks won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Over won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.