NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 221.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e19f685997d778f421120b2a7e0a946d2674c047f22edd1bc8a0c77dffa42f1

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $58,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $59,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,302 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under	53c	19,992$10,596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,595.63	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Over	46c	9,994$4,597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,396.8	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	49c	4,151$2,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,124.38	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	47c	4,000$1,880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,120	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	47c	3,329$1,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,755.98	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b2…cc3abacked Over	48c	2,611$1,253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,357.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over	47c	2,340$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,240.42	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf692…b195backed Under	52c	2,271$1,181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	53c	2,128$1,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,128	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	47c	1,277$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$676.81	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under	53c	851$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.03	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Under	45c	757$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.01	161	39.8%64 W · 97 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	47c	719.06$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.32	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	47c	654$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.38	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	53c	654$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.38	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4387…2b3dbacked Over	59c	539.99$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.75	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under	53c	518.87$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	47c	390.74$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.16	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	53c	301.83$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.36	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	47c	269$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.57	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…339abacked Under	52c	234$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.68	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	45c	233.13$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.33	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	31c	197.78$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.31	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	64c	197$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.37	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07fe…8f90backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa952…14a5backed Under	52c	192.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.98	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-4.5wins	-0.20per pick	52cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0fd2…a7aebacked Over	48c	173.44$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.09	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under	54c	154.19$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.18	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked Over	48c	145$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.4	125	54.4%68 W · 57 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65d6…cc71backed Under	52c	106$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	52c	99.98$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	47c	91.1$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.28	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	47c	85.46$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under	52c	82.59$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.95	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Over	47c	74$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.22	201	49.8%100 W · 101 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over	48c	71.73$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.3	209	49.3%103 W · 106 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Over	42c	60$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.67	243	30.5%74 W · 169 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Under	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	60c	59.33$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.81	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under	54c	56.85$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.7	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f57…7a67backed Under	54c	55.41$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Over	47c	53$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.09	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb153…d8b5backed Under	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under	53c	49$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	409	60.6%248 W · 161 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	47c	36.79$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Over	29c	35.45$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.29	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	47c	30.76$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.3	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58c…3a5cbacked Over	48c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x003a…c2efbacked Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 221.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event