TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Magic, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$313,842
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$316,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,842 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Magic48c247,971$118,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118,896.7687451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks52c215,087$111,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,241.931,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic48c23,171$11,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,122.071,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks52c17,500$9,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,4002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks53c11,000$5,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks52c10,760$5,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,143.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Bucks49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.9817249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Bucks53c8,000$4,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,78019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bucks52c6,644$3,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,189.152,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic42c4,181$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.698,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Magic51c3,500$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7851,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Magic47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41029351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Magic51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5307150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Bucks53c2,700$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Bucks53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17533146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic48c1,886$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.424,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic51c1,837$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.872,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic47c1,277$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.192,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks74c1,111$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.753,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Bucks54c1,087$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.996055%33 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Magic47c1,005$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.352,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks52c770.24$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.573,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bucks54c740.74$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.741,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb295…e601backed Bucks79c702.66$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.714259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic47c528.79$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.793,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Bucks52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24027052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bucks51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Bucks54c495$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.726553.2%141 W · 124 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Bucks50c494.68$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2623845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic50c417.47$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.243,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks52c404.97$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.384,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic43c360.42$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.123,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ca…6413backed Bucks53c354.72$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.723638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9827…6c61backed Bucks53c293.91$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.144158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Bucks53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.027152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic31c219.89$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.043,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb11d…be92backed Magic6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Magic47c188.67$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6763447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfa0…7191backed Bucks51c185.92$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.112349.6%61 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Bucks54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1929554.6%161 W · 134 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbc…3b01backed Bucks54c180.02$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.815442.6%23 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks51c166.14$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.654,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f42…249ebacked Bucks53c150.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.943161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Bucks75c141.84$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4692750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks57c140.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.211,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Bucks53c132$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0495848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Magic48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e6…7358backed Bucks53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4714046.4%65 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Bucks64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.561253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x438b…fb23backed Bucks53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4710426%27 W · 77 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bucks52c99.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4851651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95d…6a82backed Magic51c94.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.252931%9 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Magic46c76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.247349%232 W · 241 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Bucks54c75.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.931361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+24.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3938…c6cbbacked Bucks53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.479960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x007f…fb6cbacked Bucks53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.471650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x796f…c23dbacked Bucks53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.471266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Magic50c74.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2818957.1%108 W · 81 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Bucks53c71.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.78942.7%38 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Magic25c70.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Bucks48c69.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.461957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…3ab9backed Magic48c61.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302763%17 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce52…cc2fbacked Magic48c61.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.491442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Magic34c54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1724330.5%74 W · 169 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc80c…6093backed Bucks54c50.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.411060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c38…fd63backed Magic51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510069%69 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Magic47c49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.031,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Bucks50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2037852.9%200 W · 178 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Magic50c39.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Bucks52c39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.876653%35 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Bucks53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7419147.1%90 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Bucks53c36.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3217155.6%95 W · 76 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Magic30c36.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b8…c5cabacked Bucks60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.331266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe9…0bbbbacked Bucks54c31.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Bucks54c28.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0966646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Magic48c28.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5617750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Magic46c27.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.711,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Magic50c24.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230743%132 W · 175 L-19.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Bucks55c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8842335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc27f…12a9backed Bucks52c22.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.046753.7%36 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Bucks54c20.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3729645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Bucks52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.637959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Bucks52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.623249.6%115 W · 117 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Magic50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.