NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c8c0230875cff4132b99a4fb37ad0251097d44c632465abb2a098c4855a89cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Magic, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a08…f99ebacked Magic | 53c | 8,891$4,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,712.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3018…b778backed Magic | 52c | 5,692$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…53f2backed Bucks | 47c | 4,548$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,410.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…d3ebbacked Bucks | 47c | 4,343$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…31fcbacked Bucks | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff8…5794backed Bucks | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Bucks | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.99 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Magic | 54c | 1,112$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.37 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 54c | 968.24$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.76 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 49c | 908.28$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Magic | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 54c | 704.01$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.95 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ea…8cfdbacked Bucks | 48c | 692.31$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…5130backed Bucks | 58c | 636$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 47c | 592.5$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 46c | 533$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.89 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Magic | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Magic | 54c | 499.96$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 49c | 497.95$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.95 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic | 44c | 445.1$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Magic | 57c | 421.05$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bucks | 45c | 327$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Bucks | 46c | 230$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…c195backed Bucks | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bucks | 47c | 207.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Magic | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 46c | 161.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 45c | 151.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Magic | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Bucks | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bucks | 43c | 98.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Magic | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Bucks | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 53c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Bucks | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Magic | 42c | 79.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 48c | 77.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bucks | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Magic | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Magic | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 51c | 39.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bucks | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Magic | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Magic | 54c | 34.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 216 | 46.3%100 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bucks | 46c | 34.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6c20backed Bucks | 48c | 34.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…82a8backed Magic | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Bucks | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…509cbacked Bucks | 45c | 29.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Magic | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a119backed Bucks | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Magic | 54c | 23.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Magic | 55c | 20.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Magic | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Bucks | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-6.5)Bucks won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Bucks vs. MagicBucks won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Over won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.