Mls · resolved market
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fd0d14afd09b136e6aa4e79de22ba7e8f87bb1d5c28e564c36aac48986595ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Dallasof San Jose Earthquakes, FC Dallas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FC Dallas | 68c | 2,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Dallas | 79c | 1,894$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.57 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 18c | 1,673$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.33 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed FC Dallas | 71c | 1,519$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed San Jose Earthquakes | 32c | 1,406$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 15c | 998.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed San Jose Earthquakes | 21c | 347$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Jose Earthquakes | 32c | 312.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FC Dallas | 79c | 305$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Dallas | 68c | 294.55$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FC Dallas | 79c | 229.64$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed FC Dallas | 70c | 213.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed San Jose Earthquakes | 27c | 185.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed FC Dallas | 74c | 134.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Jose Earthquakes | 16c | 121.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 28c | 97.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed FC Dallas | 74c | 70.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed FC Dallas | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Dallas | 73c | 57.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 25c | 49.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed FC Dallas | 70c | 46.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked FC Dallas | 79c | 38.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed FC Dallas | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked FC Dallas | 78c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…a6f6backed FC Dallas | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed FC Dallas | 69c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed FC Dallas | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed FC Dallas | 75c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.