Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ed965badab776632f2e6696851b0b35ef1dae92520de1f42b0bcc3e1d31647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 13,355$8,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,355.63 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 39c | 10,081$3,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,168.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 64c | 7,354$4,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,697.38 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 39c | 3,927$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 2,844$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.1 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 2,327$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.05 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 24c | 1,700$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 64c | 1,016$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.72 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 942.99$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.44 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 26c | 915.98$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.99 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 73c | 893$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.89 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 40c | 760$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 36c | 699.69$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.93 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 77c | 697.19$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.75 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 25c | 670.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.7 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 50c | 622.78$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.01 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 32c | 520$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 78c | 515.03$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 448.85$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.43 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 57c | 447.75$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.62 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 404.34$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.37 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 33c | 370.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 23c | 349.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.73 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 25c | 345.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.78 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 28c | 340.68$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.8 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 41c | 305.69$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.91 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 290.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 77c | 285.29$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.3 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Over | 26c | 264$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 257$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.06 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 236.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 177.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 166$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 160.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 42c | 158$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 42c | 139.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 42c | 138.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 37c | 136.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 77c | 129.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked Over | 25c | 121.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 109.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 55c | 103.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 22c | 102.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 24c | 97.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 24c | 97.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under | 63c | 95.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…00edbacked Over | 50c | 90.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Under | 56c | 89.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 24c | 82.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Under | 50c | 76.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 66c | 76.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 34c | 59.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 31c | 54.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 53.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 55c | 51.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 67c | 42.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…1d1fbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 77c | 37.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c31dbacked Under | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Under | 60c | 32.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 37c | 29.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 76c | 24.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Under | 77c | 15.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.