Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7176889ba08d68e25e2ca75e403a65a7109a9d89895e0bfff0722073a5e5f934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 65c | 14,704$9,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,204.11 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 3,500$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.04 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 71c | 2,483$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.19 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 11c | 1,558$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.86 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…6b98backed Over | 64c | 999.96$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 957.83$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 12c | 652.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 607$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 33c | 592$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 37c | 537.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 37c | 530.68$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 33c | 505.51$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 36c | 478.47$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.7 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 33c | 460$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 36c | 450$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 36c | 376.18$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 288.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 18c | 240$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 35c | 200.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 33c | 156$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 33c | 156$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6b…b245backed Under | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 37c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 38c | 113.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 38c | 103.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 99.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 17c | 91.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 39c | 82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 65c | 76.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 36c | 72.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed Under | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 63c | 65.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 39c | 60.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 63c | 53.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 64c | 39.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 37c | 32.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…1d1fbacked Over | 63c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 70c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Over | 64c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…82bcbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.