TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,844 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c5,105$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.953,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under44c4,387$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.999340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16e5…6373backed Over63c3,500$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Over52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.98683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+72.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over52c2,509$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.231145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e15…8ea4backed Over50c1,307$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.011952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over44c931.97$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.226631.8%21 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over49c800$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4066625.8%17 W · 49 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a3c…4b61backed Under36c704.23$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-59.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Over52c625.81$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.562138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc29…383bbacked Under34c568.56$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.572532%8 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under46c564.91$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under35c505.84$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8792346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over79c495.25$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3339567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over59c463.68$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.757031.4%22 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under24c456.46$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4422042.7%94 W · 126 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under39c416$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2524046.7%112 W · 128 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under52c400.55$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2968150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under39c367.49$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7547240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6cd…acebbacked Over51c347.86$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Under49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under44c282.56$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.182044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over66c270.19$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.164862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under56c256.85$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.041,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b69…dfcabacked Over55c239.22$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under46c234.58$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.981,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa96f…0cd0backed Under46c217.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over70c206.5$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9422269.4%154 W · 68 L+31.4wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+33.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbffb…a60ebacked Under40c196$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.43250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under48c192$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1624859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Under49c166.67$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.671163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over54c159.47$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2196756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7066…50e5backed Over63c158.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.812166.7%14 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Over66c151.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5115676.9%120 W · 36 L+32.7wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+43.9%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over54c149.91$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4516453%87 W · 77 L+20.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+40%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1262…2fc9backed Over69c145.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.886563.1%41 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Over80c144.93$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2610273.5%75 W · 27 L+13.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+28.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over69c144.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9219172.3%138 W · 53 L+36.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+41.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Over44c137.34$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3411244.6%50 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over50c126.53$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1398945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under35c125.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1280249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under44c121.65$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0978344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8af…44dcbacked Over51c116$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97dc…d8a5backed Over53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad3…d0d2backed Under49c101.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.751526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-52.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609858.2%57 W · 41 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Under20c88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba78…273ebacked Over51c86$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+55.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under48c82.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.487140.8%29 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506341.3%26 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Under61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Under61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under48c78.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8471443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Under61c73.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.983345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0a…50adbacked Over70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over42c69.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8873438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Over43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7710950.5%55 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Over69c68.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1518774.3%139 W · 48 L+33.5wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+39.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6e46…42dfbacked Under49c65.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5012…4d3ebacked Over76c61.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.772860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f51…43debacked Over52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.691040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Over53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.613518.5%25 W · 110 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over48c52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9931158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.995431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Over41c48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.362050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.518465.5%55 W · 29 L+16.4wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over57c45.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.591323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-46.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under24c43.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over57c39.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.116853.6%90 W · 78 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under39c38.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7236247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe29c…a31dbacked Over49c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.386149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over43c37.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.218651.6%96 W · 90 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over52c34.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Over64c33.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.221275%9 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+64.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Over76c32.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.841361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under49c32.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.744753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under50c31.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.634050%20 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Under56c30.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43246.9%15 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac50…d728backed Over55c25.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Under53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.321942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over68c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6830444.1%134 W · 170 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under57c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.119652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf0…ce7cbacked Under49c22.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb676…2dbbbacked Over76c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.742157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Under57c18.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.666553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Over69c15.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.922972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1a7…ace4backed Over72c14.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1416159.6%96 W · 65 L+18.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.