MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ff745f430a091fbcce1ef3dc9ef6227ac081d5f4dbd36605506a7a0928a2113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 1,445$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.61 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…7e55backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 983$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.42 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 735.95$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 518$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 479.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 445.48$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.87 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 324.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 228.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 211.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.07 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 165.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 164.83$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Detroit Tigers | 15c | 90.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…b944backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 79.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 73.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Detroit Tigers | 79c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 68.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 65.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 53.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 48.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 42.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 39.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 36.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 34.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 33.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 30.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 30.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 25.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.